Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly...

Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and...

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of demographic features into the model. The analysis...

Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on...

This study assesses the economic implications of China''s changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will...

This paper shows how growth and demography, two important determinants of the savings rate in the life-cycle approach, explain a large part of the diversity in savings behavior in Asia across eight countries as well as over time. Inflation and adverse movements in the terms of trade are found to...

The paper analyzes the development of government social expenditure during the economic stabilization period, with specific reference to the changing needs for such expenditure arising from the change in Israel’s demographic structure. The results reveal a real cut in direct services. The...

This paper reviews the financial implications of aging for the pension system in Belgium during 1995-2050. Our simulations indicate a strong rise in pension expenditure over the next half century, as is the case in other industrialized countries. In Belgium, the problem is particularly acute in...

The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on...

Canadian public pension plans are run on a "pay-as-you-go" basis. As the baby boom ages, contribution rates for the two main plans are projected to rise significantly, from their current level of around 5 percent of eligible earnings to over 13 percent by 2030. An alternative is to set...