This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and … overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three … years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose …

improved since the mid-1980s; that private investment is mostly influenced by the risk of expropriation, the degree of civil … liberty, and the degree of independence of the bureaucracy; and that economic growth is affected by the risk of expropriation …

This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing … risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying … cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk …

considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities … Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out …-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add …

examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk … increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of …

economically relevant magnitude of about 60 percent. We also find evidence of aversion against political and macroeconomic risk as …