Showing 1 - 10 of 40
The study documents evidence of a ""quality effect"" of financial liberalization on allocative efficiency, which is measured by the dispersion in Tobin''s Q across firms. Based on a simple model, the authors predict that financial liberalization, by equalizing access to credit, reduces the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404168
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412096
Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412193
This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. We find that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises, with no rebound to the precrisis trend. However, growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402232
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404016
We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403222
What determines the currency to which countries peg or ""anchor"" their exchange rate? Data for over 100 countries between 1980 and 1998 reveal that trade network externalities are a key determinant. This implies that anchor currency choice may well be suboptimal in that certain currencies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401523
This paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the koruna. Slovak wages and prices are found to have been relatively low even when adjusted for differences in relative income and productivity, suggesting an undervalued real exchange rate....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401881
This paper estimates the output gap in Russia using a utilization-adjusted production function approach, which we argue is preferable to traditional output gap methods. The approach amounts to (1) using available surveys to estimate the ""natural rates"" of capacity and labor utilization above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402403
Dollarization in Russia increased rapidly during the early 1990s, but failed to come down in the second half of the 1990s in spite of exchange rate stabilization. To explain this ""dollarization hysteresis,"" this paper develops a model in which network externalities in the demand for currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403658