This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and … overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three … years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose …

for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as …

improved since the mid-1980s; that private investment is mostly influenced by the risk of expropriation, the degree of civil … liberty, and the degree of independence of the bureaucracy; and that economic growth is affected by the risk of expropriation …

This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing … risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying … cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk …

Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper … examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk …-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty …

The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the …

incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in …

and real shocks, and the credibility component depends on the mean and risk of real asset returns. Thus, observed booms …

time-varying risk. Some work by Abel provided us with the insights needed to produce such formulas. This paper gives a …