The stylized facts of government finance in the Group of Seven (G-7) industrial countries show that revenues lag real …

1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from … other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession … years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in …

(1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession …