Showing 1 - 10 of 1,620
We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479342
voting decisions. Thus, risk neutral individuals exhibit what we call political risk aversion. Yet individual uncertainty is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402381
explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly … in the crisis, the surge in global risk aversion was a significant factor influencing sovereign spreads, while recently … Spain, as the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk and long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402913
Panel data on Ghanaian manufacturing firms are used to test predictions from models of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Information on the entrepreneur’s subjective probability distribution over future demand for the firm’s products is used to construct the expected variance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403297
. The model predicts that as competition increases, both loans and assets increase; however, the effect on the loans …-to-assets ratio is ambiguous. Similarly, as competition increases, the probability of bank failure can either increase or decrease. We …'' probability of failure is negatively and significantly related to measures of competition, and that the loan-to-asset ratio is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402479
Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we construct a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey and assess how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978593
We examine how firm and country heterogeneity shape the response of corporate investment in emerging markets to changes in global interest rates and volatility. We test for the presence of (i) a financing channel originating from changes in the costs of external borrowing and (ii) a real options...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445568
numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and … volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012671531
This paper draws a link between international capital flows and the real options approach to investment by extending a model of real estate investment. It explains gradual investment, investment booms, and investment during recessions and emphasizes sunk costs, uncertainty, and the value of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403404
administration relative to free trade under imperfect competition. It shows that a country importing a good from foreign duopolists …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399874