-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the …This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to … important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic …

including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States … recent subperiods, in particular in models that also include information on real GDP growth and interest rates …

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …

-2004 period to estimate the growth impact of DD. Moderate levels of non-inflationary DD, as a share of GDP and bank deposits, are … found to exert a positive overall impact on economic growth. Granger-causality regressions suggest support for a variety of … bank deposits, DD begins to undermine growth, lending credence to traditional crowding out and bank efficiency concerns …

what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis … suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than …-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown …

labor costs in a panel VAR setting leads to an additional indirect channel which amplifies the impact of electricity prices …