Showing 1 - 10 of 649
This paper, using T-GARCH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility … ""stock market correction"" period. There is also evidence of structural breaks in the stock price and volatility dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399563
Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number … of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results … indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399985
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404016
testing of two Granger-causal linkages: the impact of return volatility in a market on intermarket correlation and the impact … of return volatility in one market on the volatility of another. Using daily data from stock, bond, currency, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400867
This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613371
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852573
A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for … volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion … specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400143
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By … using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The … estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes but also that some of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404125
rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria … could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the … than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico's FXIs data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518276
Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399678