Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries …

predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk … have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing …

improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The … results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist …

countries less accurate than a naive forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a …