We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its … GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive …

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook …

The paper discusses the limits to market-based risk transfer in the financial system and the implications for the … markets as part of governments'' role as a risk manager …

This paper presents background work that has been the basis for the development of the market and credit risk …. The fundamental idea was to build a set of Financial Indicators on Risk and Stability (FIRST) that could reflect the …

This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic … financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard … of out-of sample forecasting power for tail risk realizations of real activity for several countries, suggesting the …