Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature....

The introduction of the euro generated substantial interest in measuring the impact of currency unions (CUs) on trade flows. Rose''s (2000) initial estimates suggested a tripling of trade and created a literature in search of ""more reasonable"" CU effects. A recent meta-analysis of this...