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A view receiving increased support is that the height of trade costs in prime export sectors has a strong effect on current account balances: countries specializing in sectors that face relatively high trade costs, such as services, tend to run current account deficits, and similarly, countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001519
The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework-a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009957
China's current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154723
Growing international integration in trade and finance can challenge the measurement of external accounts. This paper presents a unified conceptual framework for identifying sources of mismeasurement of foreign investment income in current account balances. The framework allows to derive a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102053
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102056
Intangible investment is growing as a share of economic activity. We present a simple framework incorporating its distinguishing characteristic of generally greater scalability and lower marginal costs than tangible investment. We show evidence that this may have contributed to more elastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302067
In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates … significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also … unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102104
unemployment by about 2.2 pp after five years. If sequencing is required, starting with PMRs would be more effective in boosting … output, while starting with LMRs would reduce unemployment faster. Finally, increasing unemployment benefits would be more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122485
Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already fragile labor market, Covid-19 has raised the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612327
detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward … relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605652