This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating …

, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open economy business cycle model that incorporates a …

Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan''s growth … current global outlook and policies. Japan''s experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a …

The Great Recession pushed Japan’s unemployment rate to historic highs, but the increase has been small by … international standards and small relative to the large output shock. This paper explores Japan’s cyclical labor market response to …

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan … do not support the counterfactual conjecture that activity in Japan would have been significantly weaker in the absence …

1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from … other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession … years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in …