Showing 1 - 10 of 3,107
This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398165
changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
This paper identifies turning points for the U.S. business cycle using different time series. The model, a multivariate Markov-Swiching model, assumes that each series is characterized by a mixture of two normal distributions (a high and low mean) with switching determined by a common Markov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401046
We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251966
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422676
This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613371
.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry … price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve's preferred … measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795049
standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility …Does the South African rand's relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a …. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155038
This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan’s equation and … differenced model overcomes Evans’ critique of this test and that chronic inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon caused by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398740
We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011878713