Showing 1 - 10 of 1,452
This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and … economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world … inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403435
This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612329
This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403684
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488688
This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397619
multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories … matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and … beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398636
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
In this paper, we derive evidence on the integration of international stock markets from the cointegration properties … of international stock market prices. Using the multivariate cointegration test of Johansen, we find that the set of six … subgroup analyses also indicate that the cointegration relationships have become stronger over time. This is consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395829
This paper applies the maximum likelihood panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007) to test the strong … contrasted to those from the Pedroni (1995) cointegration tests and fully modified OLS and dynamic OLS esimators of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401245