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This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251371
We study the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. We develop a methodology to assess the degree of heterogeneity, which we find to be low in financial variables and output, but significant in consumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252067
Intangible investment is growing as a share of economic activity. We present a simple framework incorporating its distinguishing characteristic of generally greater scalability and lower marginal costs than tangible investment. We show evidence that this may have contributed to more elastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302067
In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates … significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also … unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102104
unemployment by about 2.2 pp after five years. If sequencing is required, starting with PMRs would be more effective in boosting … output, while starting with LMRs would reduce unemployment faster. Finally, increasing unemployment benefits would be more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122485
Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already fragile labor market, Covid-19 has raised the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612327
detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward … relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605652
The negative and stable relationship between an economy's aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well …-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and … economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796190
Using a DSGE model calibrated to the euro area, we analyze the international effects of a fiscal devaluation (FD) implemented as a revenue-neutral shift from employer's social contributions to the Value Added Tax. We find that a FD in ‘Southern European countries’ has a strong positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411809
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412100