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Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154563
Raising South Africa's low employment rate to levels seen in emerging market or advanced economy peers could raise GDP per capita by 50 to 60 percent and reduce income inequality dramatically in the long term. By putting further strain on an already fragile labor market, Covid-19 has raised the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612327
The paper surveys unemployment policies for advanced market economies and evaluates them by examining the predictions … of the underlying macroeconomic theories. The basic idea is that, for the most part, different unemployment policy …’ ability to predict some salient stylized facts about unemployment behavior. The paper considers four types, of policies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398711
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170607
government’s recent labor market initiatives. The labor market in Belgium is found to suffer from a number of structural problems … unemployment, female and youth unemployment are prevalent and there is an unusually pronounced incidence of long-term unemployment … countries, show that the generosity of long-term unemployment benefits helps to explain the prevalence of long-term unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396311
In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates … significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also … unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102104
The Greek unemployment rate rose from 2 percent in the 1960s to 9-10 percent in the 1990s. This reflected the increase …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396135
impact on unemployment in the short term, but that this effect rapidly disappears in the medium term in countries with … with more rigid labor market institutions. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term and long …-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive labor market policies have a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396963
hypotheses concerning the slow employment growth and rise in unemployment since 1990 are evaluated. The analysis indicates that a … large part of the recent rise in the unemployment rate may reflect an increase in the structural rather than the cyclical … component of unemployment. Various sources of labor market rigidities that may have contributed to the increase in structural …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398109
This paper examines the determinants of Italian unemployment by estimating and utilizing a structural vector … autoregressive (VAR) model. Both long-run and short-run macroeconomic determinants of unemployment are examined; the latter are … forecasts of unemployment are produced. A number of scenarios are also constructed to highlight the effect of alternative labor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398544