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volatility and (the lack of) persistence implies that when one excludes volatile items relevant information is likely to be … volatility and persistence. The evidence shows that such measures far outperform those based on either volatility or persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411919
This paper presents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396210
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well … of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly … trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396933
This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in … evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the … literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397409
fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398636
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009419717
Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435808
We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980 … volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price … volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694114
secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and … investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple … breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667514
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604807