We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook …

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and … overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three … years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose …

distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile …

We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR …

This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing … risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying … cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk …