This paper examines some recent techniques designed to draw inferences about the credibility of changes in macroeconomic policy regimes. An alternative two-step approach, based on the decomposition between permanent and transitory components of a "credibility variable" is proposed. The...

The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an econometric model. The paper specifies the preconditions for setting up an...

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....

This paper applies the maximum likelihood panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007) to test the strong PPP hypothesis using data for the G7 countries. This method is robust in several important dimensions relative to previous methods, including the well-known issue of...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

This paper analyzes the stochastic inventory control problem when the demand distribution is not known. In contrast to previous Bayesian inventory models, this paper adopts a non-parametric Bayesian approach in which the firm’s prior information is characterized by a Dirichlet process prior....

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process...

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and...