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A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for … volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion … specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400143
rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria … could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the … than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico's FXIs data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518276
Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number … of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results … indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399985
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404016
for the period 1970–92. Simulation results indicate that the observed volatility of multilateral real exchange rates for … the United States, Germany and Japan is not inconsistent with exchange rate volatility implied by consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397963
fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398636
standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility …Does the South African rand's relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a …. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155038
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the welfare gains from financial integration for developing and emerging market economies. To do so, we build a stochastic endogenous growth model for a small open economy that can (i) borrow from the rest of the world, (ii) invest in foreign assets, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399779
This paper investigates the consequences of exchange rate volatility on the variability of export prices and quantities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400392
This paper investigates the relationship between the nominal exchange rate regime and the volatility of relative … for primary commodities, the volatility of relative commodity prices rises when exchange rate uncertainty increases. If …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401290