In this paper we develop and test a model of a utility maximizing representative agent operating in the Belgium-Luxembourg two-tier foreign exchange market. Our tests examine and fail to reject a risk neutral representative agent utility function. When we combine a risk neutral utility function...

The paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical developments in the analysis of informal currency markets in developing countries. The basic characteristics of these markets are highlighted, and alternative analytical models to explain them are discussed. The implications for exchange rate...

This paper constructs and analyzes an optimizing model of dual exchange markets which are incompletely separated owing to the presence of fraudulent cross transactions. The model is used to examine the implications of certain shocks, including devaluation. Devaluation first leads to the...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

In 1992 Russia unified the multiple exchange rates that had applied to international transactions. This paper describes the multiple exchange rate system that existed in Russia prior to mid-1992 and undertakes a theoretical exploration of the effects of the exchange rate unification that took...

Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile...

Tobin has suggested that exchange rate volatility be controlled through a tax on international financial transactions. This analysis shows that the Tobin tax as a pure transaction tax is not viable. The tax would impair financial operations and create international liquidity problems. It is also...