The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while...

In this paper a general equilibrium intertemporal model with optimizing consumers and producers is developed to analyze how the imposition of a temporary import tariff affects the path of real exchange rates and the current account. The model is completely real, and considers a small open...

This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the...

This paper analyzes exchange rate behavior in a model where consumers trade goods to diversify shocks to their income. A model with traded and nontraded goods is simulated in a multilateral context based upon historical output correlations for the period 1970–92. Simulation results indicate...

A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts...

The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price...

This paper decomposes longer-run movements in (major) dollar real exchange rates into components associated with changes in nominal exchange rates and price levels, and their comovements. Though the decompositions suggest some permanent movements, they imply that there are large transitory...

This paper examines the links between capital inflows and the real exchange rate under pegged exchange rates. The analytical framework is described, and a near-VAR model linking capital inflows, interest rate differentials, government spending, money base velocity, and the temporary component of...

This paper investigates the consequences of pricing to market for exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate dynamics across different patterns of trade under market segmentation. Under two-way, intraindustry trade--where home prices display greater linkage with those of foreign...

In this paper we survey the recent literature on long run, or equilibrium, exchange rate modeling. In particular, we review the voluminous literature which tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of...