Counterpart funds generated through foreign currency or commodity aid have again become an issue of interest, in view of the substantial buildup of these funds. Contrary to the usual approach a model is developed in this paper, which takes account of the budgetary impact, supply-side and money...

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ratings react procyclically to crisis indicators. Ratings deteriorate if the real...

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...

This paper analyzes and tests the influence of political instability on economic vulnerability in the context of the 1994 and 1997 crises episodes. It constructs four political variables that aim at quantifying political instability. The paper finds that for countries with weak economic...

Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the...

Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the...

This paper reports in detail on a survey that was circulated to reserve managing central banks of IMF member countries in April 2012. The survey aims to gain further insight into how reserve managers have reacted to the crisis to date. The survey also aims to understand how reserve managers...

This study tests the recent balance sheet explanations of external crises in emerging market countries and the role of standards in these crises. Using several unique data sets, it finds that corporate sector balance sheets have a very significant impact on both the likelihood and depth of...

This paper examines how ratings for emerging market economies have been set. Given the high degree of autocorrelation in ratings, we use estimators that yield consistent parameters in the presence of such correlation. The results show that rating changes for emerging market economies have been...