In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro...

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest that while...

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...

Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on...

This paper pursues several objectives. First, it presents a sketch of a positive (or real-world) theory of public sector intervention. Second, it analyzes in some detail the activity of the public sector in nine market economies of developing Asia and relates this activity to the growth of the...

In exchange rate-based stabilization programs, credibility often follows a distinct time pattern. At first it rises as the highly visible nominal anchor provides a sense of stability and hopes run high for a permanent solution to the fiscal problems. Later, as the domestic currency appreciates...

This paper discusses the relationship between foreign currency deposits and money, and it shows that the indexation of part of the nominal money supply to the exchange rate, as a result of the presence of foreign currency deposits, will increase the inflationary effects of monetary disequilibria...

Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that...

This survey describes the timing and main macroeconomic results of the ambitious structural reforms adopted by Chile in the middle and late 1970s and by Colombia almost a decade later in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These reforms have enabled both countries to maintain vigorous real growth...

This paper describes developments in the balance of payments of Pakistan during 1972-86, focusing particularly on the factors that gave rise to external payments problems and the macroeconomics policies that were adopted by the authorities. While performance on the growth and inflation fronts...