We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfield & Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully...

We present and conduct a novel experiment on a dynamic beauty contest game motivated by the canonical New-Keynesian model. Participants continuously provide forecasts for prices spanning multiple future periods. These forecasts determine the price for the current period and participants'...

We examine whether inflation expectations obtained by open- and closed-ended questions lead to different inflation expectations through a randomized controlled trial. We find that different questionnaires measure significantly different inflation expectations, especially in the short term. We...

Using data on one-shot games, we investigate the assumption that players respond to underlying expectations about their opponent's behavior. In our laboratory experiments, subjects play a set of 14 two-person 3x3 games, and state first order beliefs about their opponent's behavior. The sets of...

We experimentally investigate the effect of a central bank buying bonds for cash in a quantitative easing (QE) operation. In our experiment, the bonds are perfect substitutes for cash and have a constant fundamental value which is not affected by QE in the rational expectations equilibrium. We...

We investigate the effect of preannounced market intervention on an asset price as well as participants' welfare in an experimental frame- work where participants have consumption smoothing motives to trade the asset. The results show that, on one hand, the preannounced inter- vention results in...

This study experimentally investigates the impact of the lack of arbitrage opportunities across different assets on the realization of the law of one price. Our experiment is based on the framework established by Charness and Neugebauer (2019) where participants, acting as traders, are involved...

This paper analyzes the rationality of Japanese macroeconomic forecasters. It finds that Japanese individual forecasters are pessimistic in boom and optimistic in recession, and that they over-react to new information. Across forecasters, the magnitude of average forecast revisions is not...

This paper analyzes the determinants of health insurance enrollment and health expenditure in Ghana using micro data from wave 7 of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 7) with emphasis on the role of risk preferences and the availability of health facilities in one's own community, neither...

This paper examines the efficiency and distributional effects of fuel tax and feebate policies in the automobile market. I employ a model in which households make two-stage decisions on car ownership and utilization, and I estimate model parameters by combining micro-level data from a household...