Ein wichtiges Instrument des Risikocontrollings stellt die Unterlegung von Risiken mit Eigenkapital- bzw. Liquiditätsreserven dar. Hierfür ist es erforderlich, für alle wesentlichen Einzelrisiken Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen der möglichen Verluste zu bestimmen, auf deren Grundlage die...

Bei der Kreditrisikobewertung müssen die Parameter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und korrelation geschätzt werden. Diese Schätzung erfolgt unter Unsicherheit. In der Literatur werden asymptotische Konfidenzregionen diskutiert, um diese Unsicherheit bei der simultanen Schätzung beider Parameter...

Die Bewertung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten von Ratingklassen, basierend auf historischen Daten, ist mit Schätzunsicherheit verbunden. Zur Bewertung dieser Unsicherheit werden in der Literatur Konfidenzintervalle diskutiert. Diesen liegen allerdings Annahmen bezüglich der Abhängigkeiten...

Since the introduction of the European CO2 emissions trading system (EU ETS), the development of CO2 allowance prices is a new risk factor for enterprises taking part in this system. In this paper, we analyze how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic profit and...

This article seeks to make an assessment of estimation uncertainty in a multi-rating class loan portfolio. Relationships are established between estimation uncertainty and parameters such as probability of default, intra- and inter-rating class correlation, degree of inhomogeneity, number of...

The risk of bad debt losses evolves for companies which grant payment targets. Possible losses have to be covered by these companies equity and liquidity reserves. The question of how to quantify the level of risk of bad debt losses will be discussed in this paper. Input values of this risk are...

Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is...

For credit risk assessment, probability of default and correlation have to be estimated simultaneously. However, these estimates are uncertain. To assess this uncertainty the literature has discussed the use of asymptotic confidence regions. This kind of region though needs a long credit history...

The use of probability of default estimates to assess the risks of a credit portfolio should not ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter can be quantified by confidence intervals. But assumptions about dependencies of these intervals are inconsistent with assumptions of conventional credit...

Since the introduction of the European CO2 emissions trading system (EU ETS), the development of CO2 allowance prices is a new risk factor for enterprises taking part in this system. In this paper, we analyze how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic profit and...