Market participants' risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition in°uence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important e®ects on the sustainability of currency pegs. We analyze such e®ects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action...

We model a safe asset market with investors valuing safety, investors valuing liquidity, and constrained dealers. While safety investors and liquidity investors can interact symbiotically with offsetting trades in times of stress, we show that liquidity investors' strategic interaction harbors...

The perceptions of a central bank’s inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high-frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of...

Financial contagion is modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon in a dynamic setting with incomplete information and multiple banks. The equilibrium probability of bank failure is uniquely determined. We explore how the cross holding of deposits motivated by imperfectly correlated regional liquidity...

A common feature of many speculative attack models on currencies is the existence of multiple equilibrium solutions. When choosing the equilibrium strategy, a trader faces Knightian uncertainty about the rational choice of the other traders. We show that the concept of Choquet expected utility...

This article discusses the out-of-court restructuring of the contractual obligations of a financially distressed firm, under conditions of asymmetric information among the firm’s creditors and in situations where a creditor bank makes concessions conditional on other creditors’ actions. I...

The classical doctrine of the Lender of Last Resort, elaborated by Thornton (1802) and Bagehot (1873), asserts that the Central Bank should lend to “illiquid but solvent” banks under certain conditions. Several authors have argued that this view is now obsolete: when interbank markets are...

This paper studies how the introduction of social learning with costs to delay affects coordination games with incomplete information. We present a tractable noisy dynamic coordination game with social learning and costs to delay. We show that this game has a unique monotone equilibrium. A...

This paper is an empirical investigation into the duration of exchange rate episodes characterized by the absence of speculative attacks. We estimate a duration model for OECD countries during the 1970-1997 period. Specifically, we use semi-parametric methods to estimate model with unrestricted...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with...