We propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can...

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

This study demonstrates that nonlinearities, coupled with worker heterogeneity, make it possible to reconcile the Diamond Mortensen Pissarides model with the labor market dynamics observed in the United States. Nonlinearities, induced by firings and downward real wage rigidities, magnify...

The COVID-19 pandemic raised the share of inactive individuals in 2020 in Italy, mostly at the expense of permanent and fix-term employment. We document sizable asymmetric effects across categories of individuals, defined on the basis of gender, age and geographical area. In particular, the...

We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of...

We analyze the political stability of funded social security. Using a stylized theoretical framework we study the mechanisms behind governments capturing social security assets in order to lower current taxes. The results and the driving mechanisms carry over to a fully-fledged and carefully...

We study fiscal devaluation in a small-open economy with labor market search frictions. Our analysis shows the key role of both dimensions in shaping the optimal tax scheme. By reducing labor market distortions, the tax reform is welfare-improving. Yet, as it makes imports more expensive, fiscal...

This paper examines to what extent recent empirical evidence can collectively andsystematically substantiate the claim that entrepreneurship has important economic value.Hence, a systematic review is provided that answers the question: What is the contribution ofentrepreneurs to the economy in...

We evaluate the effects of outsourcing and wage solidarity on wage formation andequilibrium unemployment in a heterogeneous labour market, where wages are determinedby a monopoly labour union. We find that outsourcing promotes the wage dispersion betweenthe high-skilled and low-skilled workers...

We study both the various consequences and the incentives of outsourcing. We argue thatthe wage elasticity of labour demand is increasing as a function of the share of outsourcing,which is importantly a result consistent with existing empirical research...