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affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both … households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously … provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353363
inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf … bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can replicate the strong persistence and heterogeneity observed in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157753
negative impact are threefold. First, perceived inflation overestimates the real increase in prices resulting in suboptimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317284
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal … microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030510
In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different datasets that cannot be matched....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906482
Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012764650
An important advance in the study of reference-dependent preferences is the discipline provided by coherent accounts of reference point formation. Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) provide such discipline by positing a reference point grounded in rational expectations. We examine the predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043666
As the pandemic spread across the U.S., disagreement among U.S. households about inflation expectations surged along … with the mean perceived and expected level of inflation. Simultaneously, the inflation experienced by households became … between the inflation experienced by households in their daily shopping and their perceived and expected levels of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083908
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation …. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect … subsequent monthly consumption decisions relative to those in a control group. The causal effects of elevated inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864876
account middle-inflation overestimate the impact of financial expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839066