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frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less … update their policy rate expectations less than households when provided with an expert forecast, consistent with holding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083849
The dearth of women in top managerial positions is characterized by a high persistence and insensitivity to changes and differences in institutions and policies. This suggests it could be caused by slowly changing social norms and attitudes in the labor market, such as gender stereotypes and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948650
bubbles and crashes. These findings are reminiscent of popular narratives according to which aggregate booms and busts might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082140
This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083377
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects are hard to identify without model assumptions. We develop a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job-search behavioral outcomes, like the reservation wage,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324790
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects may differ according to ethnic origin. We apply a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job search behavioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129936
We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic … systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price changes … distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012822
Overconfidence is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their own judgments is systematically greater than their objective accuracy. There is abundant anecdotal evidence that overconfident people increase their exposure to risk. In this paper, we test whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023389
, while they are in line with recent models that focus on anger as the result of the frustration of expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863801
A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases when processing information about themselves, but less is known about the underlying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regarding academic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842041