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output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data … long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013154980
-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107701
The Japanese lost decade has become an intriguing puzzle for both economists and policy-makers alike, as the unemployment rate climbed to unprecedented levels and the growth rate of productivity decreased considerably. More recent times seem to present with a more optimistic outlook, but this is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130464
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117001
In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126923
forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills …. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264517
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836575
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correctionmodel for Switzerland …. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First,we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861655
This paper investigates the role of testing and age-composition in the Covid-19 epidemic. We augment a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices regarding how much time to spend working and consuming outside the house, both of which increase the risk of transmission. Individuals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833250
Many countries consider rising fertility through pro-family policies as a solution to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity. However, an increased number of births implies immediate private costs and only delayed public benefits of younger and larger population. We propose using an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870210