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Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos - 2012

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117001

Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129098

Pandemic-Era Uncertainty

Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - 2022

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406440

An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi - 2012

-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy's steady state growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107701

Should Contact Bans be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of its Effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836575

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik - 2012

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480

The Japanese Lost Decade and Beyond : A Chain Reaction Theory Approach

Agnese, Pablo - 2011

The Japanese lost decade has become an intriguing puzzle for both economists and policy-makers alike, as the unemployment rate climbed to unprecedented levels and the growth rate of productivity decreased considerably. More recent times seem to present with a more optimistic outlook, but this is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130464

A Gravity Model of Migration between Enc and EU

Ramos, Raul - 2013

Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073508

Wage Cyclicalities and Labor Market Dynamics at the Establishment Level : Theory and Evidence

Merkl, Christian - 2017

Using the new AWFP dataset that covers all German establishments, we document a substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of establishments' average real wages over the business cycle. While the median establishments' real wages are procyclical, there is a large fraction of establishments with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946571

Frictional Unemployment with Stochastic Bubbles

Vuillemey, Guillaume - 2016

Bubbles are recurrent events, which contribute to both macroeconomic and employment volatility. We introduce stochastic bubbles in the standard search-and matching model of the labor market. The economy alternates between latent and bubbly states, each being associated with a distinct solution...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981503