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Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141228

Investigating the Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Stock Markets

Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine; Ben Naceur, Samy; Kanaan, … - 2021

This paper investigates the presence of asymmetric relationship between oil price movements and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. We propose the implementation of nonlinear vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models which offer a greater flexibility when modelling the possible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314986

Testing CAPM with a Large Number of Assets

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2012

This paper is concerned with testing the time series implications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) due to Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965), when the number of securities, N, is large relative to the time dimension, T, of the return series. In the case of cross-sectionally correlated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107698

Misspecification Testing in a Class of Conditional Distributional Models

Rothe, Christoph - 2012

We propose a specification test for a wide range of parametric models for the conditional distribution function of an outcome variable given a vector of covariates. The test is based on the Cramer-von Mises distance between an unrestricted estimate of the joint distribution function of the data,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110184

Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate T Distribution

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021

than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316934

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos - 2012

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117001

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Snowberg, Erik - 2012

Prediction markets – markets used to forecast future events – have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103480

How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies

Snowberg, Erik - 2011

This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions ﾖ from the economic effects of party control of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126921

Trading While Sleepy? Circadian Mismatch and Excess Volatility in a Global Experimental Asset Market

Dickinson, David L. - 2017

Traders in global markets operate at different local times-of-day. Suboptimal times-of-day may produce sleepiness due to daily variations in sleep/wake patterns and possibly also increased accumulation of hours awake. Global asset markets imply significantly increased heterogeneity in circadian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947730

The Variability and Volatility of Sleep : An Archetypal Approach

Hamermesh, Daniel S.; Pfann, Gerard A. - 2022

individuals' sleep time exhibits both variability and volatility characterized by stationary autoregressive conditional … young children at home. Volatility is greater among parents with young children, slightly greater among men than women, but … independent of other demographics. A theory of economic incentives to minimize the dispersion of sleep predicts that higher …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083924