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Since the last recession, it is usually argued that older workers are less affected by the economic downturn because their unemployment rate rose less than the one of prime-age workers. This view is a myth: older workers are more sensitive to the business cycle. We document volatilities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055568
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and … positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a destabilizing effect of public wages. To explain these relationships, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989839
Financial frictions are known to raise the volatility of economies to shocks (e.g. Bernanke andGertler 1989). We follow … this line of research to the labor literature concerned by the volatility of labor market outcomes to productivity shocks … are a good candidate to solve the volatility puzzle and rejoin Pissarides (2009) in arguing that hiring costs must be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139045
theory. While labor market institutions have a large effect on output volatility, they do not seem to have much of an effect …This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone … could account for volatility differences across member states, but labor market characteristics have remained very diverse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143682
Bubbles are recurrent events, which contribute to both macroeconomic and employment volatility. We introduce stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981503
Using the new AWFP dataset that covers all German establishments, we document a substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of establishments' average real wages over the business cycle. While the median establishments' real wages are procyclical, there is a large fraction of establishments with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946571
vanished, (ii) the relative volatility of employment has risen, and (iii) the relative (and absolute) volatility of the real … observed decline in output volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139707
Over the past two decades, technological progress has been biased towards making skilled labor more productive. What does skill-biased technological change imply for business cycles? To answer this question, we construct a quarterly series for the skill premium from the CPS and use it to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158513
This paper shows that the matching function and the Beveridge curve in the United States exhibit strong nonlinearities over the business cycle. These patterns can be replicated by enhancing a search and matching model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks for new contacts. Large negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996526