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Frictional Unemployment with Stochastic Bubbles

Vuillemey, Guillaume - 2016

Bubbles are recurrent events, which contribute to both macroeconomic and employment volatility. We introduce stochastic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981503

Why is Old Workers' Labor Market More Volatile? Unemployment Fluctuations Over the Life-Cycle

Hairault, Jean-Olivier - 2014

Since the last recession, it is usually argued that older workers are less affected by the economic downturn because their unemployment rate rose less than the one of prime-age workers. This view is a myth: older workers are more sensitive to the business cycle. We document volatilities of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055568

Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate

Binh Thai Pham - 2019

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881

Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate T Distribution

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021

than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316934

Decomposing Excess Returns in Stochastic Linear Models

Lin, Carl - 2012

We present a theorem helpful in estimating the mean and variance of a linear function with arbitrary multivariate randomness in its coefficients and variables. We derive a generalized decomposition result from two random linear functions in which the result can be applied to most models using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113072

Are Labor Force Participation Rates Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from Three OECD Countries

Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin - 2014

This paper shows that the structural breaks are an important characteristic of the monthly labor force participation rate (LFPR) series of Australia, Canada and the USA. Therefore we allow for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks in the empirical specifications of fractionally...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065313

Labor Mobility Across the Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey : Evidence from Individual Level Data

Tansel, Aysıt - 2012

Informality has long been a salient phenomenon in developing country labor markets, thus has been addressed in several theoretical and empirical research. Turkey, given its economic and demographic dynamics, provides rich evidence for a growing, heterogeneous and multifaceted informal labor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112057

Interest Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in Domestic Investment : Evidence for the Euro Area

Belke, Ansgar Hubertus - 2019

The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863789

Public Wages, Public Employment, and Business Cycle Volatility : Evidence from U.S. Metro Areas

A. Reicher, Claire - 2016

business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and … positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a destabilizing effect of public wages. To explain these relationships, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989839

Modelling Heterogeneity and Dynamics in the Volatility of Individual Wages

Hospido, Laura - 2010

proposed. The expression for a modified likelihood function is obtained for estimation and inference in a fixed-T context …. Using a bias-corrected likelihood approach makes it possible to reduce the estimation bias to a term of order 1/Tﾲ. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148328