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Partisan Impacts on the Economy : Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

Snowberg, Erik - 2011

Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012757085

Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013141228

Decomposing Excess Returns in Stochastic Linear Models

Lin, Carl - 2012

We present a theorem helpful in estimating the mean and variance of a linear function with arbitrary multivariate randomness in its coefficients and variables. We derive a generalized decomposition result from two random linear functions in which the result can be applied to most models using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113072

Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate T Distribution

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021

than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316934

The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry

Belke, Ansgar Hubertus - 2019

Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in … been associated with "expensive yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the … strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863763

Investigating the Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on GCC Stock Markets

Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine; Ben Naceur, Samy; Kanaan, … - 2021

This paper investigates the presence of asymmetric relationship between oil price movements and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. We propose the implementation of nonlinear vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models which offer a greater flexibility when modelling the possible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314986

Political Spillovers of Workplace Democracy in Germany

Jirjahn, Uwe; Le, Thi - 2022

decision making has the potential to foster workers political participation in civic society. Our study for Germany indeed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079421

Does Education Affect Attitudes Towards Immigration? Evidence from Germany

Margaryan, Shushanik - 2018

reform in West Germany, this article finds that an additional year of schooling lowers the probability of being very … concerned about immigration to Germany by around six percentage points (20 percent). Furthermore, our findings imply significant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906492

On the Role of Sectoral and National Components in the Wage Bargaining Process

Dreger, Christian - 2010

This paper provides an empirical analysis on the determination of wages at the sectoral level in main industrial economies. Nominal wages are bargained between labour unions and employers in imperfect competitive markets, where spillovers across sectors might occur. Using a principal component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144083

The Phantom of the Opera : Cultural Amenities, Human Capital, and Regional Economic Growth

Falck, Oliver - 2020

We analyze the extent to which endogenous cultural amenities affect the spatial equilibrium share of high-human-capital employees. To overcome endogeneity, we draw on a quasi-natural experiment in German history and exploit the exogenous spatial distribution of baroque opera houses built as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857538