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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Askitas, Nikos - 2011

Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129098

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting

Askitas, Nikos - 2012

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117001

Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany

Marczak, Martyna - 2010

This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137519

Adapting to Climate Risk? Local Population Dynamics in the United States

Indaco, Agustín; Ortega, Francesc - 2023

Using a new composite climate-risk index, we show that population in high-risk counties has grown disproportionately … largely driven by increases in the (white) working-age population. In addition, we show that high-risk tracts have typically … grown more than low-risk tracts within the same county, suggesting the presence of highly localized amenities in high-risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260268

Transmission of US and EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock to Asian Economies in Bad and Good Times

Balcilar, Mehmet - 2020

This study empirically examines the fragility of five major Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) to economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of US and EU, and oil prices in different state of the economies. To investigate these dynamics, we use the relative tail dependence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833241

Public Wages, Public Employment, and Business Cycle Volatility : Evidence from U.S. Metro Areas

A. Reicher, Claire - 2016

Based on data from a cross section of U.S. metro areas, we show that public employment correlates negatively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989839

Extensive vs. Intensive Margin in Germany and the United States : Any Differences?

Merkl, Christian - 2010

This paper analyzes the role of the extensive vis-à-vis the intensive margin of labor adjustment in Germany and in the United States. The contribution is twofold. First, we provide an update of older U.S. studies and confirm the view that the extensive margin (i.e., the adjustment in the number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139060

Cyclical Variation in Labor Hours and Productivity Using the ATUS

Burda, Michael C. - 2013

We examine monthly variation in weekly work hours using data for 2003-10 from the Current Population Survey (CPS) on hours/worker, from the Current Employment Survey (CES) on hours/job, and from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) on both. The ATUS data minimize recall difficulties and constrain...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089287

Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

Poggi, Ambra - 2007

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777463

Climate Risk and Beliefs in New York Floodplains

Gibson, Matthew - 2020

-2017, we estimate the price effects of three flood risk signals: 1) the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act, which …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826730