-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the … national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but …

Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to …

mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …

considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market efficiency. The paper then focuses on the theoretical …

risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty – the ambiguity triangle – and show that … indifference curves in this triangle capture preferences for unknown probabilities. In particular, the ambiguity triangle allows us …-parametric test for constant ambiguity attitudes. We find that more than 95% of subjects adhere to GARP and that about 60% satisfy our …