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Warrant economics, call-put policy options and the fallacies of economic theory
Hatgioannides, John; Karanassou, Marika - 2011
In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282231
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Warrant Economics, Call-Put Policy Options and the Fallacies of Economic Theory
Hatgioannides, John; Karanassou, Marika - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2011
In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416932
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269318
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On identification of Bayesian DSGE models
Koop, Gary; Pesaran, Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2011
In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010278760
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On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?
Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584
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Forecasting with spatial panel data
Baltagi, Badi H.; Bresson, Georges; Pirotte, Alain - 2009
This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268987
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Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks
Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004
This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287666