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Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - 2004

This paper considers the problems facing decision makers using econometric models in real time. It identifies the key stages involved and highlights the role of automated systems in reducing the effect of data snooping. It sets out many choices that researchers face in construction of automated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276178

Real Time Econometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Timmermann, Allan - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2004

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005763536

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

Brücker, Herbert; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2005

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584

Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks

Timmermann, Allan; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Pesaran, … - 2004

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180

The Political (In)Stability of Funded Social Security

Beetsma, Roel M. W. J.; Komada, Oliwia; Makarski, Krzysztof - 2021

We analyze the political stability of funded social security. Using a stylized theoretical framework we study the mechanisms behind governments capturing social security assets in order to lower current taxes. The results and the driving mechanisms carry over to a fully-fledged and carefully...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012882341

Optimal fiscal devaluation

Langot, François; Patureau, Lise; Sopraseuth, Thepthida - 2012

We study fiscal devaluation in a small-open economy with labor market search frictions. Our analysis shows the key role of both dimensions in shaping the optimal tax scheme. By reducing labor market distortions, the tax reform is welfare-improving. Yet, as it makes imports more expensive, fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283944

The unexpected appearance of a new German model

Eichhorst, Werner - 2012

decades moving from a situation of low employment and limited labour market inequality to higher employment, but also more … inequality. Germany is a case in point as it exhibits growing employment figures and growing shares of low pay and non … policies and employment protection play a major role, but changes in industrial relations at the sectoral level and individual …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283946

Optimal Fiscal Devaluation

Langot, François; Patureau, Lise; Sopraseuth, Thepthida - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010755820

The Effect of Health Changes and Long-Term Health on the Work Activity of Older Canadians

Au, Doreen; Crossley, Thomas F.; Schellhorn, Martin - 2004

health and employment among older Canadians. We focus on two issues: (1) the possible endogeneity of self-reported health … estimates of the impact of health on employment using self-assessed health, the HUI3, and a ?purged? health measure similar to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262030

European vs. American hours worked: assessing the role of the extensive and intensive margins

Langot, François; Quintero-Rojas, Coralia - 2008

that the two dimensions of the extensive margin, the employment rate and the participation rate, explain the most of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268973