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Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?
Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander K.; … - 2008
existing belief elicitation results, (ii) can we avoid potential hedging confounds? Our results instill confidence regarding … both issues. We propose an experimental design that eliminates hedging opportunities, and use this to test for the … empirical relevance of hedging effects in the lab. We find no evidence for hedging, comparing the standard hedging-prone" belief …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269267
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Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2006
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267377
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Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762416
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Does It Pay to Bet on Your Favourite to Win? Evidence on Experienced Utility from the 2018 FIFA World Cup Experiment
Kossuth, Lajos; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Harris, Donna; … - 2019
This paper examined whether people gained significant emotional benefits from not engaging in emotional hedging … the tournament. This decision not to offset a potential loss through hedging did not pay off in people's happiness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141225
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Belief Elicitation in Experiments: Is there a Hedging Problem?
Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander K.; … - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2008
existing belief elicitation results, (ii) can we avoid potential hedging confounds? Our results instill confidence regarding … both issues. We propose an experimental design that eliminates hedging opportunities, and use this to test for the … empirical relevance of hedging effects in the lab. We find no evidence for hedging, comparing the standard “hedging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005761772
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Educational Homogamy: Preferences or Opportunities?
Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Svarer, Michael - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2006
Individuals match on length and type of education. We investigate whether the systematic relationship between educations of partners is explained by opportunities (e.g. low search frictions) or preferences (e.g. complementarities in household production or portfolio optimization). We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005703755
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Following Germany's Lead : Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy
di Giovanni, Julian; McCrary, Justin; von Wachter, Till - 2005
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262211
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The European Phillips curve: does the NAIRU exist?
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - 2003
This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265404
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The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for unemployment and inflation dynamics
Christoffel, Kai; Linzert, Tobias - 2005
In this paper we incorporate a labor market with matching frictions and wage rigidities into the New Keynesian business cycle model. In particular, we analyze the effect of a monetary policy shock and investigate how labor market frictions affect the transmission process of monetary policy. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267287
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Causal effects of monetary shocks: semiparametric conditional independence tests with a multinomial propensity score
Angrist, Joshua D.; Kuersteiner, Guido M. - 2008
Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270625