We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and Financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the...

This paper introduces the Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis (KUH), a new approach to macroeconomics and finance theory. KUH rests on a novel mathematical framework that characterizes both measurable and Knightian uncertainty about economic outcomes. Relying on this framework and John Muth's...

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when historically unique events cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which non-repetitive...