Consider the financial sustainability of public finances in the context of stochastic demographics. Such analyses have typically been made under the assumption that future demographic developments are deterministic. When stochastic demographics have been considered, the problems have been...

All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with...

Historical evidence shows that demographic forecasts, including mortality forecasts, have often been grossly in error. One consequence of this is that forecasts are updated frequently. How should individuals or institutions react to updates, given that these are likewise expected to be...