We assess the marginal predictive content of a large international dataset for forecasting GDP in New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply “data-rich” factor and shrinkage methods to efficiently handle hundreds of predictor series from many countries. The methods covered are...

We assess the marginal predictive content of a large international dataset for forecasting GDP in New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply "data-rich" factor and shrinkage methods to efficiently handle hundreds of predictor series from many countries. The methods covered are...

We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on...