It is well known that citizens tend to blame the government for economic hardship, and that they see legislative elections as an opportunity to "throw the rascals out". However, while this mechanism has been thoroughly explored as a basis for election forecasting in the US and many Western...

Radical Right Parties (RRPs) have traditionally been seen as 'hard cases' to forecast, with unstable voter bases affected by short-term influences. Building upon our previous work on forecasting the French Front National's vote across time, we construct a comparable model for three other...