This study investigates the time-series relatedness of state and national indexes of leading indicators and the implications of these results regarding state employment forecasting. Composite indexes of leading indicators are constructed for the United States and each of the fifty states based...

The forecasting accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) versions of five different regional models are compared for three states. Two base models for each state consist of three national variables and three state variables. Three misspecified models are then constructed...