We analyse the relationships between return calculation methods, risk and observation periods. We show that the mean of a return set calculated using logarithmic returns is less than the mean calculated using simple returns by an amount related to the variance of the set. This implies that there...

In this paper we review the literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes. This research area is characterized by a large number of studies reflecting different markets, time periods, methodologies and model parameters. While most of the...

This paper empirically investigates the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) in three of the most established stock markets in the world; the US, UK and Japanese markets using very long run data. Daily data is divided into five-yearly subsamples and subjected to linear and nonlinear tests to...