The paper analyzes the circumstances in which the combination of forecasts yields better results than the use of the forecasts separately. We propose a method of combining forecasts based on their efficiency on long and medium-term using as benchmarks the combination of forecasts based on...

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

In this study, we examine both stochastic and deterministic convergence in the logarithm of the relative per capita income of eighteen EU countries. The panel stationary test developed by Carrion-i Silvestre et al. (2005) is employed over the period 1950-2010. The univariate results attained...

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey by using the co-integration and vector error-correction models with structural breaks. It employs annual data covering the period 1968–2005. The study also explores...

Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available...

This study investigates the behavior of US stock price–dividend relationships over the period 1871:01 to 2012:03 using a two-regime Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root developed by Caner and Hansen (2001), which allows for simultaneously testing nonlinearity...

The paper describes the version (2012) of the Romanian economic macromodel2. The model has been constructed taking into account the important consequences induced by the integration of the country into the European Union and by the world crisis. Some supplementary requests of the government...