The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view....

In this study we analyse the issue of mean reversion in forward discount based on nonlinear framework for seven currencies. Compared to previous study, we apply a novel approach of a threshold regression (TAR) and followed by nonlinear unit root tests. This approach disentangles tbodhe issue of...

This paper aims to explore the forecasting accuracy of RON/USD exchange rate structural models with monetary fundamentals. I used robust regression approach for constructing robust neural models less sensitive to contamination with outliers and I studied its predictability on 1 to 6-month...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

Inference about predictive ability is usually carried-out in the form of pairwise comparisons between two forecasting methods. Nevertheless, some interesting questions are concerned with families of models and not just with a couple of forecasting strategies. For instance: Are time-series models...

This paper adopts the macro-financial engineering method, taking risk factors into account to build a new framework for macroeconomic research in the IS-LM-BP model. Based on the balance of commodity markets, currency markets and the international balance of payments, the framework studies the...

The short-term forecasts regard the trend of several macroeconomic indicators, namely the GDP, industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, the monetary base, total household savings, and exchange rate, for February 2002.

The short-term forecasts regard the trend of several macroeconomic indicators, namely the GDP, industrial output, inflation, unemployment rate, monetary base, total household savings, and exchange rate for the first and second quarter of 2002.

Over the last decade economists were more and more concentrated on studying the impact of the greenhouse effect on economy. At the same time, they tried to find solutions to stop the CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and, implicitly, to make changes in the structure of energy production and...

This paper presents some government policies scenarios and proposes the appropriate policies for stimulating the economic growth in Romania. The GDP dynamics, budgetary revenues, employment and wages are forecasted using a macroeconomic model of the Romanian economy. The direct effects of the...